By Michael Pohst
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Extra resources for Algorithmic Methods in Algebra and Number Theory
90. Based on average returns in the market for this type of investments, the enterprise establishes an expectation (prediction). However, the actual value may show a significant deviation from this value, and it is the deviation that one is especially concerned about in this context. Risk and the risk analysis have their focus on the uncertainties viewed in relation to the market average values. The variance and the quantiles thus become important expressions of risk. In the economic literature, the concept Value-at-Risk (VaR) is often used for such a quantile.
WHAT IS RISK? 2 Description of risk in a safety context In a safety context, terms such as FAR (Fatal Accident Rate), PLL (Potential Loss of Life), Individual Risk (IR) and F–N (Frequency–Number of Fatalities) curve are commonly used. We will explain these terms below. In situations where risk is focused on loss of lives, the FAR value is often used to describe the level of risk. The FAR value is defined as the expected number of fatalities per 100 million (108 ) hours of exposure. When the FAR concept was introduced, 108 hours corresponded to the time of 1000 persons present at their place of work through a full life span.
Operational personnel should be aware of these assumptions, and it is essential that the assumptions are incorporated into the maintenance programme and the emergency preparedness planning, etc. In practice, it is a challenge to achieve all this successfully. 1 Sensitivity and robustness analyses The risk picture is not complete unless we have carried out sensitivity and robustness analyses. These analyses show to what extent the results are dependent on important conditions and assumptions, and what it takes for the conclusions to be changed.
Algorithmic Methods in Algebra and Number Theory by Michael Pohst